پیش‌بینی پراکنش یوزپلنگ آسیایی، پلنگ ایرانی و خرس قهوه‌ای در پاسخ به متغیرهای محیطی در استان اصفهان

Distribution modelling is important for assessing threats and conservation status of species and for planning conservation programs. We studied the distribution of suitable habitats of Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus), Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) and brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Isfahan province within and outside the protected areas. Suitable habitats of the three studied carnivores in Isfahan province were mapped in relation to climatic, topographic and anthropogenic variables using MAXENT. Assessing the developed model using the area under the ROC function showed that predictions for the three carnivore species were significantly better than random. Potential suitable habitats of Asiatic cheetah, Persian leopard and brown bear constituted 5.2%, 12% and 3.4% of the Isfahan province area, respectively. Slope was the most important factor determining Persian leopard habitat suitability, while climatic factors (mainly mean autumn and mean annual precipitation) were the most important determinants of Asiatic cheetah and brown bear distribution. The protected area network within the province covers 55.7%, 23.7%, and 11.6% of the suitable habitats for Asiatic cheetah, Persian leopard and brown bear, respectively. Parts of suitable habitats of the three species are located outside the protected areas, which could be considered in planning conservation programs as potential movement corridors.